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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 1 at the 35

Denver Broncos 3 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(4:42) 8-B.McManus 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-C.Wadman.

The Three Options

GO +1.75 EP
Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.63 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 35, worth -1.87 EP
KICK +0.14 EP
What Happened
  • 65% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 45, worth -2.60 EP
PUNT -0.69 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.61 EP