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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 14 at the 61

Tennessee Titans 0 – Denver Broncos 6

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 6-B.Kern punts 46 yards to DEN 15, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 11-D.Spencer to DEN 16 for 1 yard (29-D.Cruikshank).

The Three Options

GO -1.72 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.63 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 61, worth -3.41 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 20, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model