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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 1 at the 51

Denver Broncos 6 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(:20) 6-C.Wadman punts 51 yards to end zone, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.58 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +1.58 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 51, worth -1.52 EP
KICK -0.38 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.75 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -1.41 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 14, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP