4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 1 at the 69

Denver Broncos 6 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(9:10) 6-C.Wadman punts 56 yards to TEN 13, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 10-A.Humphries to TEN 14 for 1 yard (26-I.Yiadom, 19-F.Brown).

The Three Options

GO -0.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.59 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 69, worth -3.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -0.93 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 27, worth -0.93 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.86 EP