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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 7 at the 82

Denver Broncos 13 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(:37) 6-C.Wadman punts 38 yards to TEN 44, Center-42-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.48 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +0.92 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 82, worth -4.73 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -2.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 40, worth -2.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model