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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 4 at the 13

Tennessee Titans 0 – Denver Broncos 13

What Actually Happened

(9:17) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill sacked at DEN 21 for -8 yards (57-D.Walker).

The Three Options

GO +2.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.23 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 13, worth -0.21 EP
KICK +1.79 EP
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 23, worth -0.94 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model