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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 5 at the 67

Denver Broncos 3 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(5:55) 6-C.Wadman punts 52 yards to TEN 15, Center-42-C.Kreiter, downed by DEN-36-T.Marshall.

The Three Options

GO -1.02 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.27 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 67, worth -3.54 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 25, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model