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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 2 at the 49

Tennessee Titans 0 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(2:07) 6-B.Kern punts 34 yards to DEN 15, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 11-D.Spencer.

The Three Options

GO +0.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.81 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.81 EP
KICK -1.48 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.84 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 14, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP