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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 2 at the 39

Miami Dolphins 0 – Washington Commanders 7

What Actually Happened

(8:14) (Shotgun) 3-J.Rosen pass short right to 83-N.O'Leary to WAS 37 for 2 yards (20-L.Collins) [52-R.Anderson]. FUMBLES (20-L.Collins), and recovers at WAS 36. 83-N.O'Leary to WAS 36 for no gain (20-L.Collins). Washington challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #2.)

The Three Options

GO +1.26 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.88 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 39, worth -1.66 EP
KICK -0.17 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 48, worth -2.48 EP
PUNT +0.13 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model