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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 3 at the 62

Washington Commanders 7 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(6:20) (Punt formation) 5-T.Way punts 46 yards to MIA 16, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 18-P.Williams.

The Three Options

GO -0.87 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.78 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 62, worth -3.76 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -1.37 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 21, worth -1.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EP