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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 5 at the 21

Miami Dolphins 0 – Washington Commanders 7

What Actually Happened

(1:13) (Field Goal formation) 7-J.Sanders 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-2-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO +1.45 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.74 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.35 EP
KICK +2.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 31, worth -0.85 EP
PUNT +0.22 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model