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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 6 at the 71

Miami Dolphins 3 – Washington Commanders 7

What Actually Happened

(13:21) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 41 yards to WAS 30, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 18-T.Quinn.

The Three Options

GO -1.71 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.96 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 71, worth -4.02 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 29, worth -1.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model