Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 14 at the 73

Miami Dolphins 0 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(10:22) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 60 yards to WAS 13, Center-46-T.Pepper. 18-T.Quinn ran ob at WAS 28 for 15 yards (35-W.Aikens). PENALTY on WAS-13-K.Harmon, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at WAS 28.

The Three Options

GO -2.39 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.43 EP
74% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 73, worth -4.11 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model