4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 9 at the 37

Washington Commanders 17 – Miami Dolphins 3

What Actually Happened

(15:00) (Field Goal formation) 3-D.Hopkins 55 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO -0.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.19 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 37, worth -1.92 EP
KICK -0.12 EP
What Happened
  • 55% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 46, worth -2.60 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model