Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 6 at the 73

Washington Commanders 17 – Miami Dolphins 10

(9:57) (Punt formation) 5-T.Way punts 47 yards to MIA 26, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 18-P.Williams.

The Three Options

GO -1.79 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.50 EP
58% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 73, worth -4.18 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model