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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 3 at the 81

Washington Commanders 17 – Miami Dolphins 10

What Actually Happened

(6:28) (Punt formation) 5-T.Way punts 43 yards to MIA 38, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 18-P.Williams pushed ob at WAS 41 for 21 yards (5-T.Way).

The Three Options

GO -1.56 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.95 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 81, worth -4.59 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -1.76 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 38, worth -1.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model