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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 17 at the 48

Miami Dolphins 10 – Washington Commanders 17

What Actually Happened

(4:53) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 47 yards to WAS 1, Center-46-T.Pepper, downed by MIA-35-W.Aikens.

The Three Options

GO -1.08 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.51 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 48, worth -2.34 EP
KICK -1.20 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.38 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 14, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model