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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 2 at the 74

Washington Commanders 0 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(9:17) (Punt formation) 5-T.Way punts 48 yards to MIA 26, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 18-P.Williams.

The Three Options

GO -1.43 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +0.63 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 74, worth -4.59 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.83 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 32, worth -1.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP