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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 5 at the 51

Washington Commanders 17 – Miami Dolphins 10

What Actually Happened

(2:11) (Punt formation) 5-T.Way punts 35 yards to MIA 16, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 18-P.Williams pushed ob at MIA 25 for 9 yards (39-J.Reaves).

The Three Options

GO -0.37 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +1.99 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 51, worth -2.08 EP
KICK -1.26 EP
  • 21% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 79% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.08 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 14, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model