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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 16 at the 80

Miami Dolphins 0 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(7:46) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 42 yards to WAS 38, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 18-T.Quinn. PENALTY on WAS-32-J.Moreland, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at WAS 38.

The Three Options

GO -2.78 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +2.21 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 80, worth -4.47 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 37, worth -1.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model