4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 15 at the 44

Miami Dolphins 0 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(:24) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 37 yards to WAS 7, Center-46-T.Pepper, downed by MIA-42-P.Laird.

The Three Options

GO -0.64 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.18 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 44, worth -2.04 EP
KICK -0.80 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.54 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 12, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model