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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 20 at the 47

New York Giants 14 – Arizona Cardinals 17

What Actually Happened

(:57) 9-R.Dixon punts 31 yards to ARI 16, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-48-J.Tauaefa.

The Three Options

GO -0.67 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +3.85 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 47, worth -2.07 EP
KICK -0.49 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.12 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 13, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model