Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 9 at the 74

New York Giants 14 – Arizona Cardinals 17

(13:09) 9-R.Dixon punts 38 yards to ARI 36, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-30-A.Hamilton. Kick deflected by ARI-D.Gardeck.

The Three Options

GO -1.86 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.95 EP
62% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 74, worth -4.20 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model