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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 3 at the 35

Arizona Cardinals 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(10:14) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short middle to 16-T.Sherfield to NYG 31 for 4 yards (27-D.Baker).

The Three Options

GO +0.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.75 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 35, worth -2.01 EP
KICK +0.23 EP
  • 67% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 33% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 45, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model