4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 5 at the 19

New York Giants 14 – Arizona Cardinals 24

What Actually Happened

(1:11) 2-A.Rosas 37 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +1.74 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.10 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 19, worth -0.57 EP
KICK +1.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 29, worth -1.20 EP
PUNT +0.09 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model