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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 17 at the 59

Tennessee Titans 10 – Los Angeles Chargers 10

What Actually Happened

(10:27) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 50 yards to LAC 9, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 35-T.Pope.

The Three Options

GO -1.55 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.18 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 59, worth -3.11 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 18, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model