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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 2 at the 31

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(11:01) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass incomplete short left to 86-H.Henry (31-K.Byard).

The Three Options

GO +1.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.93 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 31, worth -1.76 EP
KICK +0.67 EP
  • 76% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 41, worth -2.43 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model