4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 13 at the 32

Los Angeles Chargers 10 – Tennessee Titans 16

What Actually Happened

(10:59) (Field Goal formation) 3-C.McLaughlin 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-C.Mazza, Holder-1-T.Long.

The Three Options

GO +0.05 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.67 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 32, worth -1.57 EP
KICK +0.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 42, worth -2.20 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model