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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Tennessee Titans
4th & 1 at the 49
Tennessee Titans 23 – Los Angeles Chargers 20
What Actually Happened
(2:39) 17-R.Tannehill up the middle to LAC 49 for no gain (97-J.Bosa).
The Three Options
GO
-0.31 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +0.62 EP
- 32% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.27 EP
KICK
-1.07 EP
- 33% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.37 EP
- 67% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.27 EP
PUNT
-0.95 EP
- Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.95 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
