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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 5 at the 27

Tennessee Titans 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(6:06) (Field Goal formation) 3-C.Parkey 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO +1.35 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.67 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 27, worth -0.75 EP
KICK +1.62 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 37, worth -1.66 EP
PUNT +0.19 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model