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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 10 at the 11

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Tennessee Titans 3

What Actually Happened

(:07) (Field Goal formation) 3-C.McLaughlin 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-C.Mazza, Holder-1-T.Long.

The Three Options

GO +1.79 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.34 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 11, worth +0.08 EP
KICK +1.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.97 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 22, worth -0.78 EP
PUNT +0.08 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model