4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 17 at the 50

Atlanta Falcons 3 – Los Angeles Rams 10

What Actually Happened

(6:56) 9-K.Redfern punts 37 yards to LA 13, Center-47-J.Harris, out of bounds. PENALTY on ATL-47-J.Harris, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LA 13.

The Three Options

GO -0.74 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.94 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 50, worth -2.42 EP
KICK -1.24 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.42 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 14, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model