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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 15 at the 65

Los Angeles Rams 13 – Atlanta Falcons 3

What Actually Happened

(:58) 6-J.Hekker punts 20 yards to ATL 45, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.79 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.13 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 65, worth -3.39 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 23, worth -0.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model