4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 5 at the 43

Los Angeles Rams 30 – Atlanta Falcons 10

What Actually Happened

(:28) 6-J.Hekker punts 32 yards to ATL 11, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 83-R.Gage to ATL 11 for no gain (51-T.Reeder). FUMBLES (51-T.Reeder), touched at ATL 5, RECOVERED by LA-31-D.Williams at ATL 0. TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +0.43 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +1.27 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 43, worth -0.21 EP
KICK +1.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.91 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -0.24 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 12, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.15 EP