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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 12 at the 65

Miami Dolphins 14 – Buffalo Bills 9

What Actually Happened

(2:18) 2-M.Haack punts 47 yards to BUF 18, Center-46-T.Pepper. 18-A.Roberts pushed ob at BUF 25 for 7 yards (44-D.Lacey).

The Three Options

GO -1.35 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.69 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 65, worth -2.66 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 23, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model