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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 1 at the 4

Miami Dolphins 14 – Buffalo Bills 9

What Actually Happened

(6:42) (Field Goal formation) 2-M.Haack up the middle to BUF 2 for 2 yards (27-T.White).

The Three Options

GO +3.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.12 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 4, worth -0.06 EP
KICK +1.64 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21, worth -0.99 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model