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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 3 at the 57

Miami Dolphins 14 – Buffalo Bills 17

What Actually Happened

(11:14) 2-M.Haack punts 57 yards to end zone, Center-46-T.Pepper, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.71 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.22 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 57, worth -3.03 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -1.08 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 17, worth -1.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP