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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 11 at the 76

Miami Dolphins 14 – Buffalo Bills 24

What Actually Happened

(5:12) 2-M.Haack punts 49 yards to BUF 27, Center-46-T.Pepper. 18-A.Roberts to BUF 36 for 9 yards (30-C.Lammons).

The Three Options

GO -2.68 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.33 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 76, worth -4.13 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 34, worth -1.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model