Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 6 at the 60

Buffalo Bills 24 – Miami Dolphins 14

(4:09) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 39 yards to MIA 21, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 18-P.Williams to MIA 40 for 19 yards (46-J.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO -1.27 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +0.72 EP
58% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 60, worth -2.73 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model