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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 8 at the 67

Miami Dolphins 0 – Buffalo Bills 3

What Actually Happened

(7:15) 2-M.Haack punts 43 yards to BUF 24, Center-46-T.Pepper. 18-A.Roberts to BUF 30 for 6 yards (55-J.Baker, 81-D.Smythe).

The Three Options

GO -2.20 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.73 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 67, worth -3.88 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 25, worth -1.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model