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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 10 at the 25

Buffalo Bills 3 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(3:52) 4-S.Hauschka 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +0.91 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +5.16 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25, worth -0.93 EP
KICK +1.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 35, worth -1.77 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model