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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 3 at the 81

New Orleans Saints 9 – Chicago Bears 7

What Actually Happened

(1:32) (Punt formation) 6-T.Morstead punts 58 yards to CHI 23, Center-49-Z.Wood. 29-T.Cohen pushed ob at CHI 33 for 10 yards (53-A.Klein).

The Three Options

GO -1.87 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.58 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 81, worth -4.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -2.33 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 38, worth -2.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP