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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 3 at the 73

Chicago Bears 0 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(13:37) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punt is BLOCKED by 48-J.Gray, Center-48-P.Scales, ball out of bounds in End Zone, SAFETY NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on CHI-16-P.O'Donnell, Illegal Bat, 0 yards, enforced in End Zone, SAFETY.

The Three Options

GO -0.73 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +2.01 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 73, worth -4.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.08 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 31, worth -1.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP