4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 14 at the 28

Chicago Bears 7 – New Orleans Saints 9

What Actually Happened

(11:38) 15-E.Pineiro 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +0.40 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.13 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 28, worth -1.21 EP
KICK +1.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 38, worth -1.98 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model