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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 12 at the 20

New Orleans Saints 9 – Chicago Bears 10

What Actually Happened

(6:35) 3-W.Lutz 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +0.92 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.35 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 20, worth -0.64 EP
KICK +1.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.98 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30, worth -1.36 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model