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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 2 at the 67

Chicago Bears 10 – New Orleans Saints 12

What Actually Happened

(6:03) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 34 yards to NO 33, Center-48-P.Scales, downed by CHI-27-S.McManis.

The Three Options

GO -0.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.56 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 67, worth -3.07 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.69 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 25, worth -0.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP