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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 1 at the 50

New Orleans Saints 2 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(11:25) (Punt formation) 6-T.Morstead punts 38 yards to CHI 12, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 29-T.Cohen.

The Three Options

GO +0.77 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.52 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 50, worth -3.14 EP
KICK -1.83 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.59 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -3.14 EP
PUNT -0.78 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 14, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.55 EP