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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Chicago Bears
4th & 3 at the 45
Chicago Bears 10 – New Orleans Saints 29
What Actually Happened
(9:23) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass incomplete short right.
The Three Options
GO
+0.45 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.91 EP
- 48% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 45, worth -2.17 EP
KICK
-0.85 EP
- 39% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
- 61% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.62 EP
PUNT
-0.47 EP
- New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 12, worth -0.47 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
