Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 5 at the 72

Chicago Bears 0 – New Orleans Saints 2

What Actually Happened

(8:50) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 54 yards to NO 18, Center-48-P.Scales. 11-D.Harris to NO 27 for 9 yards (27-S.McManis; 45-J.Iyiegbuniwe).

The Three Options

GO -1.31 EP

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.91 EP
54% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 72, worth -4.09 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model