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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 13 at the 41

Dallas Cowboys 14 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(:53) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 31 yards to PHI 10, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 35-B.Scott.

The Three Options

GO -0.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.35 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 41, worth -1.92 EP
KICK -0.05 EP
  • 55% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.60 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 12, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model